Puchar Polski
Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction: a narrow Raków Częstochowa win
Our model makes Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa a narrow Raków Częstochowa win, with a most likely score of 1-1 and low confidence at 51%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 66% — combined xG 3.5.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 241 wins and 121 losses from 362 settled picks, a 66.6% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Motor Lublin or Raków CzęstochowaDouble chance tips today78%1.28
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
- Raków Częstochowa (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today65%1.54
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.1%10.99
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Raków Częstochowa at 51 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Motor Lublin and 2.0 from Raków Częstochowa, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Motor Lublin or Raków Częstochowa at 78 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.