USL Championship
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction: a narrow New Mexico United win
Our model makes New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising a narrow New Mexico United win and low confidence at 51%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- New Mexico United or Phoenix Rising FCDouble chance tips today76%1.32
- New Mexico United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.9%9.17
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 53Tips44 Power49
- 50Tips44 Form50
- 64Tips44 Attack72
- 44Tips44 Defence24
- 60Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Phoenix Rising to score90% recent
Phoenix Rising scored in 9 of their last 10 (18 goals).
- Both teams to score75% recent · model 56%
Both teams scored in 6 of New Mexico United's last 10 and 9 of Phoenix Rising's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 56%
6 of New Mexico United's last 10 and 9 of Phoenix Rising's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3 and 3.7 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has New Mexico United at 51 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from New Mexico United and 1.2 from Phoenix Rising FC, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: New Mexico United or Phoenix Rising FC at 76 percent and New Mexico United (draw no bet) at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
New Mexico United. Our model gives them a 51% chance of winning, against 24% for Phoenix Rising and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%. Both teams scored in 6 of New Mexico United's last 10 and 9 of Phoenix Rising's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.8 for New Mexico United and 1.2 for Phoenix Rising.
When is New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Monday 2 November, 02:00 EAT (23:00 UTC). It is a USL Championship match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.