UEFA Nations League
North Macedonia vs Slovenia Prediction: a narrow Slovenia win
Our model makes North Macedonia vs Slovenia a narrow Slovenia win, with a most likely score of 0-1 and low confidence at 48%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 319 wins and 128 losses from 447 settled picks, a 71.4% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Slovenia or drawDouble chance tips today79%1.27
- Slovenia (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today69%1.45
- Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today15.0%6.67
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 4Tips44 Power50
- 6Tips44 Form44
- 0Tips44 Attack47
- 7Tips44 Defence60
- 50Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Slovenia to score83% recent
Slovenia scored in 5 of their last 6 (7 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Slovenia at 48 percent, with the draw at 30 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 0.8 goals from North Macedonia and 1.3 from Slovenia, a combined 2.2, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Slovenia or draw at 79 percent and Slovenia (draw no bet) at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 15.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
North Macedonia0.85
Slovenia1.33Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
North Macedonia vs Slovenia: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
Slovenia. Our model gives them a 48% chance of winning, against 21% for North Macedonia and 30% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
0-1 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 45%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 38%, with expected goals of 0.8 for North Macedonia and 1.3 for Slovenia.
When is North Macedonia vs Slovenia?
Monday 16 November, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a UEFA Nations League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.