Categoría Primera A
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction: an Once Caldas win
Our model makes Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar an Once Caldas win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 60%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Once Caldas favoured at 60% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.7.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Once Caldas or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Once Caldas (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today83%1.20
- Once Caldas to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.7%6.80
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 51Tips44 Power46
- 50Tips44 Form53
- 40Tips44 Attack44
- 64Tips44 Defence40
- 20Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Once Caldas to score90% recent
Once Caldas scored in 9 of their last 10 (10 goals).
- Alianza Valledupar to score80% recent
Alianza Valledupar scored in 8 of their last 10 (11 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Once Caldas at 60 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Once Caldas and 0.7 from Alianza Valledupar FC, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Once Caldas or draw at 85 percent, Once Caldas (draw no bet) at 83 percent and Once Caldas to win at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar?
Once Caldas. Our model gives them a 60% chance of winning, against 15% for Alianza Valledupar and 24% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Once Caldas and 0.7 for Alianza Valledupar.
When is Once Caldas vs Alianza Valledupar?
Thursday 29 October, 02:00 EAT (23:00 UTC). It is a Categoría Primera A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.