Copa do Brasil
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama Prediction: a narrow Palmeiras win
Our model makes Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama a narrow Palmeiras win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 61%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Palmeiras favoured at 61% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.8.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Palmeiras or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Palmeiras (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Palmeiras to winMatch result tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.7%6.80
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 71Tips44 Power66
- 73Tips44 Form67
- 64Tips44 Attack64
- 76Tips44 Defence68
- 30Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Palmeiras to score80% recent
Palmeiras scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Palmeiras at 61 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Palmeiras and 0.8 from Vasco da Gama, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Palmeiras or draw at 85 percent, Palmeiras (draw no bet) at 81 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?
Palmeiras. Our model gives them a 61% chance of winning, against 14% for Vasco da Gama and 25% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 45%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 44%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Palmeiras and 0.8 for Vasco da Gama.
When is Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?
Sunday 1 November, 22:00 EAT (19:00 UTC). It is a Copa do Brasil match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.