Ligue 1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes Prediction: a Paris Saint-Germain win
Our model makes Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes a Paris Saint-Germain win, with a most likely score of 2-1 and moderate confidence at 67%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Paris Saint-Germain favoured at 67%, with model xG of 2.2 vs 1.0.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Paris Saint-Germain or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Paris Saint-Germain (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today82%1.22
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
- Paris Saint-Germain to winMatch result tips today67%1.49
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.8%10.20
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 82Tips44 Power31
- 90Tips44 Form30
- 100Tips44 Attack36
- 56Tips44 Defence28
- 80Tips44 Goals40
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain)
What the last 10 matches say
- Paris Saint-Germain to score100% recent
Paris Saint-Germain scored in 10 of their last 10 (31 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 82%
9 of Paris Saint-Germain's last 10 and 8 of Troyes's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Paris Saint-Germain at 67 percent, with the draw at 19 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from Paris Saint-Germain and 1.0 from Troyes, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 85 percent, Paris Saint-Germain (draw no bet) at 82 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Paris Saint-Germain2.21
Troyes1.04Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
Paris Saint-Germain. Our model gives them a 67% chance of winning, against 14% for Troyes and 19% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-1 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 2.2 for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.0 for Troyes.
When is Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
Saturday 7 November, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a Ligue 1 match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.