Segunda División
Real Valladolid vs Castellón Prediction: a narrow Castellón win
Our model makes Real Valladolid vs Castellón a narrow Castellón win and low confidence at 40%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 301 wins and 119 losses from 420 settled picks, a 71.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Real Valladolid or CD CastellónDouble chance tips today73%1.37
- CD Castellón (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.2%8.93
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 59Tips44 Power84
- 57Tips44 Form77
- 84Tips44 Attack92
- 36Tips44 Defence84
- 80Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 77%
9 of Real Valladolid's last 10 and 9 of Castellón's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Real Valladolid to score90% recent
Real Valladolid scored in 9 of their last 10 (21 goals).
- Castellón to score90% recent
Castellón scored in 9 of their last 10 (23 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 33 percent Real Valladolid, 27 percent the draw and 40 percent CD Castellón. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Real Valladolid and 1.7 from CD Castellón, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Real Valladolid or CD Castellón at 73 percent and CD Castellón (draw no bet) at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Real Valladolid1.24
CD Castellón1.68Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Real Valladolid vs Castellón: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Real Valladolid vs Castellón?
Castellón. Our model gives them a 40% chance of winning, against 33% for Real Valladolid and 27% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.2 for Real Valladolid and 1.7 for Castellón.
When is Real Valladolid vs Castellón?
Saturday 14 November, 16:00 EAT (13:00 UTC). It is a Segunda División match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.