J1 League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse Prediction: a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win
Our model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win, with a most likely score of 2-1 and moderate confidence at 66%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima favoured at 66% — model xG 2.4 vs 1.0.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 272 wins and 136 losses from 408 settled picks, a 66.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 66 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.4 goals from Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.0 from Shimizu S-Pulse, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw at 85 percent, Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.