Brasileirão Serie A
São Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction: a narrow São Paulo win
Our model makes São Paulo vs Corinthians a narrow São Paulo win and low confidence at 43%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- São Paulo or drawDouble chance tips today73%1.37
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today70%1.43
- São Paulo (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today13.0%7.69
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 40Tips44 Power28
- 37Tips44 Form17
- 36Tips44 Attack44
- 48Tips44 Defence24
- 30Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Corinthians to score90% recent
Corinthians scored in 9 of their last 10 (11 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has São Paulo at 43 percent, with the draw at 30 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from São Paulo and 1.0 from Corinthians, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: São Paulo or draw at 73 percent, Over 8.5 corners at 70 percent and São Paulo (draw no bet) at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 13.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
São Paulo1.31
Corinthians0.97Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
São Paulo vs Corinthians: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in São Paulo vs Corinthians?
São Paulo. Our model gives them a 43% chance of winning, against 27% for Corinthians and 30% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 41%, with expected goals of 1.3 for São Paulo and 1.0 for Corinthians.
When is São Paulo vs Corinthians?
Thursday 5 November, 03:30 EAT (00:30 UTC). It is a Brasileirão Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.