Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Union Berlin Prediction: a Freiburg win
Our model makes Freiburg vs Union Berlin a Freiburg win, with a most likely score of 2-1 and moderate confidence at 66%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
SC Freiburg favoured at 66%, with model xG of 2.2 vs 1.1.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- SC Freiburg or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
- SC Freiburg (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
- SC Freiburg to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.8%10.20
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 61Tips44 Power23
- 63Tips44 Form33
- 92Tips44 Attack32
- 28Tips44 Defence4
- 100Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Freiburg to score90% recent
Freiburg scored in 9 of their last 10 (23 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 62%
10 of Freiburg's last 10 and 5 of Union Berlin's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 4.1 and 3.2 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has SC Freiburg at 66 percent, with the draw at 19 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from SC Freiburg and 1.1 from 1. FC Union Berlin, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by SC Freiburg or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent and SC Freiburg (draw no bet) at 81 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
SC Freiburg2.20
1. FC Union Berlin1.07Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Freiburg vs Union Berlin: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Freiburg. Our model gives them a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Union Berlin and 19% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-1 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 2.2 for Freiburg and 1.1 for Union Berlin.
When is Freiburg vs Union Berlin?
Sunday 8 November, 19:30 EAT (16:30 UTC). It is a Bundesliga match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.