Europa League
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje Prediction: a narrow Sturm Graz win
Our model makes Sturm Graz vs NK Celje a narrow Sturm Graz win and low confidence at 59%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 60% — combined xG 3.2.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- SK Sturm Graz or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- SK Sturm Graz (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today60%1.67
- SK Sturm Graz to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 56Tips44 Power42
- 57Tips44 Form37
- 68Tips44 Attack60
- 44Tips44 Defence28
- 70Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 81%
8 of Sturm Graz's last 10 and 10 of NK Celje's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - NK Celje to score80% recent
NK Celje scored in 8 of their last 10 (15 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has SK Sturm Graz at 59 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from SK Sturm Graz and 1.2 from NK Celje, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by SK Sturm Graz or draw at 82 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent and SK Sturm Graz (draw no bet) at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
SK Sturm Graz2.03
NK Celje1.17Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Sturm Graz vs NK Celje: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Sturm Graz. Our model gives them a 59% chance of winning, against 18% for NK Celje and 22% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 58%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 60%, with expected goals of 2.0 for Sturm Graz and 1.2 for NK Celje.
When is Sturm Graz vs NK Celje?
Thursday 5 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.