Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Tigre vs Sarmiento Prediction: a narrow Tigre win
Our model makes Tigre vs Sarmiento a narrow Tigre win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 54%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 316 wins and 130 losses from 446 settled picks, a 70.9% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Tigre or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
- Tigre (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.3%6.99
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 38Tips44 Power44
- 27Tips44 Form40
- 44Tips44 Attack52
- 44Tips44 Defence40
- 60Tips44 Goals40
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Sarmiento to score90% recent
Sarmiento scored in 9 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 69%
7 of Tigre's last 10 and 10 of Sarmiento's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Tigre at 54 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Tigre and 0.8 from Sarmiento, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Tigre or draw at 81 percent, Tigre (draw no bet) at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Tigre1.51
Sarmiento0.85Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Tigre vs Sarmiento: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Tigre. Our model gives them a 54% chance of winning, against 19% for Sarmiento and 28% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 46%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 43%, with expected goals of 1.5 for Tigre and 0.8 for Sarmiento.
When is Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Saturday 7 November, 04:00 EAT (01:00 UTC). It is a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.