Coupe de France
US St. Philbert de Grandlieu vs VFC La Roche-sur-Yon Prediction: a narrow VFC La Roche-sur-Yon win
Our model makes US St. Philbert de Grandlieu vs VFC La Roche-sur-Yon a narrow VFC La Roche-sur-Yon win and moderate confidence at 62%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
VFC La Roche-sur-Yon favoured at 62%, with model xG of 1.1 vs 2.1.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 319 wins and 128 losses from 447 settled picks, a 71.4% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- VFC La Roche-sur-Yon or drawDouble chance tips today83%1.20
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- VFC La Roche-sur-Yon (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today78%1.28
- VFC La Roche-sur-Yon to winMatch result tips today62%1.61
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.5%10.53
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has VFC La Roche-sur-Yon at 62 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from US St. Philbert de Grandlieu and 2.1 from VFC La Roche-sur-Yon, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by VFC La Roche-sur-Yon or draw at 83 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent and VFC La Roche-sur-Yon (draw no bet) at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
US St. Philbert de Grandlieu1.12
VFC La Roche-sur-Yon2.07Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
US St. Philbert de Grandlieu vs VFC La Roche-sur-Yon: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in US St. Philbert de Grandlieu vs VFC La Roche-sur-Yon?
VFC La Roche-sur-Yon. Our model gives them a 62% chance of winning, against 17% for US St. Philbert de Grandlieu and 21% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 61%, with expected goals of 1.1 for US St. Philbert de Grandlieu and 2.1 for VFC La Roche-sur-Yon.
When is US St. Philbert de Grandlieu vs VFC La Roche-sur-Yon?
Friday 13 November, 22:00 EAT (19:00 UTC). It is a Coupe de France match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.