La Liga
Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction: a narrow Real Madrid win
Our model makes Valencia vs Real Madrid a narrow Real Madrid win and low confidence at 54%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Real Madrid or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Real Madrid (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today70%1.43
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.8%9.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 27Tips44 Power76
- 20Tips44 Form80
- 28Tips44 Attack100
- 32Tips44 Defence48
- 50Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
- Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
What the last 10 matches say
- Real Madrid to score90% recent
Real Madrid scored in 9 of their last 10 (25 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Real Madrid at 54 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Valencia and 1.8 from Real Madrid, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Real Madrid or draw at 77 percent, Real Madrid (draw no bet) at 70 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Valencia1.18
Real Madrid1.80Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid. Our model gives them a 54% chance of winning, against 23% for Valencia and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.2 for Valencia and 1.8 for Real Madrid.
When is Valencia vs Real Madrid?
Saturday 7 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a La Liga match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.