DFB Pokal
VfL Bochum 1848 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction: a 1. FSV Mainz 05 win
Our model makes VfL Bochum 1848 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 a 1. FSV Mainz 05 win, with a most likely score of 1-2 and low confidence at 55%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 61% — combined xG 3.9.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 241 wins and 121 losses from 362 settled picks, a 66.6% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 or drawDouble chance tips today79%1.27
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today8.7%11.49
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 55 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from VfL Bochum 1848 and 2.8 from 1. FSV Mainz 05, a combined 3.9, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by 1. FSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet) at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent and 1. FSV Mainz 05 or draw at 79 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 8.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.